If Slovakia had 50% vaccination, 41% fewer patients would be in hospitals today, says mathematician Richard Kollár
Mathematician Richard Kollár published a paper on his social network, where he and Martin Šuster financially evaluated how Slovak hospitals would be if our country had a 50% vaccination rate.
If five percent more Slovaks were vaccinated against COVID-19 today than is currently the case, 41 percent fewer people were in hospitals.
This follows from a comparison prepared by mathematicians Richard Kollár and Martin Šuster. The Slovaks also estimated how much better or worse the situation in the hospitals was if they were vaccinated at different rates.
They also compared how many people with such serious side effects after the administration of the COVID-19 vaccine we recorded in Slovakia in connection with the overall vaccination.
As of the current situation, Slovakia is approaching the maximum capacity of hospital beds for patients with COVID-19 diseases. Artificial lung ventilation is occupied at 97 percent, in three regions even at 100 percent. Specifically, on Friday, November 12, there were 2,626 people in hospitals with COVID-19 diseases.
A total of 8,702 patients with coronavirus infections were admitted to the hospital during the ongoing wave. Vaccination was approximately 45% of the total population.
A total of 1,091 cases of side effects after vaccination have been reported to the State Institute for Drug Control (ŠÚKL) since the start of vaccination.
“What would the situation look like if we had already vaccinated 50 percent of the entire population today? Our estimate is that there were 1,561 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals today. That’s 41 percent less with an increase in vaccination of just five five points. “ Kollár states in the press release.
They also calculated that vaccinated people have about six to seven times less risk if you get a hospital, even if you get infected.
The calculations also took into account the indirect effect of vaccination, which slows down the overall growth of the epidemic in the population.
“So in this scenario, we would have an incidence, ie the number of newly reported cases of positive PCR tests, only 664 per 100,000 inhabitants, not 1,052,” added the mathematician.
In the case of 60 percent vaccination, as in the Czech Republic and Austria, for example, only about 544 people with COVID-19 were in hospitals, which is about one-fifth of the current situation. Therefore, we would reach the current situation in about 32 days while maintaining the current measures.
Regarding the side effects after vaccination, higher vaccination would, of course, also lead to a higher number of serious side effects of the vaccine. Their number would increase from the current 1,091 to about 1,336, or about 22 percent.
“The increase in the number of people with side effects would therefore be significantly less than the number of people who did not get into the hospital as a result of the vaccination.” Kollár explained.
At the same time, they worked in this estimate on the assumption that approximately the same epidemic measures were applied in our country as we actually had, despite the significantly worse or better epidemic situation.
Nor can it be used for any improvement or deterioration if we inoculate the relevant percentages of the population in the future.
“Therefore, for example, Austria or the Czech Republic currently have a similar incidence as Slovakia, despite higher vaccinations. The current pandemic wave started earlier and grew more slowly, although their measures were milder. However, we will see the effect of lower hospital incomes than in our two neighbors, ” he added at the end.
Sources: Facebook / Richard Kollár, SITA