The importance of a victory over Kosovo for the FIFA ranking and the road to Euro 2024
Greece was defeated by Spain, eliminated in the qualifiers of the 2022 World Cup, but the most important game is this one against Kosovo that follows on Sunday. The FIFA ranking is the explanation.
The defeat of National Greece by Spain on Thursday put an end to any mathematical hopes he had to find himself again in a final phase of the World Cup. The defeat of National Greece by Kosovo on Sunday may put an end to the opposite real hopes he had to find himself again in a final phase of the World Cup. Because always the game with Kosovo was more important than the one against Spain, in terms of realism. And the explanation has to do with the FIFA ranking.
The draw of Greece in the 2nd qualifying group together with Spain and Sweden immediately anointed her an outsider for the first two places that either lead to Qatar or to the playoffs. Our country had two such strong opponents in the draw on December 7, 2020, because it was 29th among the 55 countries of Europe and consequently placed in the 3rd capacity group out of 6 in total.
At the moment, after the defeat against Spain, our country is estimated (since the next announcement for the FIFA ranking will be made when the November qualifiers are completed) in the 51st position of the FIFA ranking and consequently in the 27th between of European countries, ie again very close to the razor’s edge, in terms of relegation to the 4th capacity group in the draw for the 2026 World Cup to be held in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
How the points of each country are obtained
Based how to calculate the FIFA ranking valid from 2017, the points of each country are derived from the formula P = Pbefore + I * (W – We).
Where P points after each match, where Pbefore points before each match. It symbolizes the difficulty factor of each match (eg the World Cup qualifiers have a factor of 25, the friendlies have a factor of 10, etc.) and the W symbolizes the result of the match (1 point for victory, half for a draw, none for defeat) .
We is also the most difficult part of the equation to calculate, since it concerns the expected result of a match and results from the formula We = 1 / (10 (-dr / 600) + 1), where the difference in points between the two countries of the match in FIFA ranking.
When the equation is solved, the points won by the winning country, which are the same as those deducted from the loser, or the points that are added or subtracted to both in the event of a tie.
What will a defeat from Kosovo bring?
Initial calculations after the defeat against Spain give Greece 1,427.96 points. In case of victory over Kosovo, the harvest will increase to 1,434.49, if the two countries are tied, Greece has 1,421.99 points, while if it loses, its harvest will decrease to 1,409.49.
In the last scenario, the points that Greece has on Monday will be so many that at the moment they would bring it to the 29th place among the European countries in the FIFA ranking.
At the same time, it has two national teams below it that are constantly collecting points and flirting with the qualification to the playoffs of the 2022 World Cup, which offer more points (as a superior organization) than the friendlies that Greece will give next March.
Albania is currently estimated at 1,374.33 points and Northern Macedonia reached 1,353.65. Although the distance that separates them from Greece is not covered by a struggle, the tendency of both neighboring countries has been on the rise in recent years. Both have participated in the final phase of a large organization more recently than Greece (Albania at Euro 2016, Northern Macedonia at Euro 2020) and are at the best “moon” in their history.
The positive for Greece is that in the positive for the same mix other countries, such as Ireland, Bosnia, Northern Ireland, Finland, Iceland and Slovenia, our countries with positive results can put down and not worries that it will drop to the 4th capacity group in the draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
All these countries are currently more or less at the same level, while there are others a little higher or a little lower that can also enter the battle. What is certain is that until the draw of those qualifiers, there are many matches for the participating countries to get (or lose) points, after the Nations League 2022-2023, the Euro 2024 qualifiers and the friendlies in the licenses.
The difference with Euro 2024
The next big event in the program for Greece is not the World Cup on the other side of the Atlantic, but Euro 2024. not to play a role in the FIFA ranking in the training of capacity groups for the qualifying groups, but the overall ranking in the Nations League 2022 -2023, starting next June.
The SPORT24 has already analyzed the picture of the four categories of this tournament, with the National team being in the 3rd, after the two consecutive failed routes in the previous editions.
This means that the highest position that can reach the overall ranking of the Nations League 2022-2023 (and not only in its category or in its group) is the 25th, which it maintains in the 3rd capacity group (from the 21st to the 30th position ) in the draw on October 9, 2022 in Frankfurt, for the Euro 2024 qualifiers. 40th place) in the draw of the qualifying groups of Euro 2024. Such a scenario will bring -theoretically- three strong teams in the same group and will make even more difficult the period of the “blue and white” in football appointments.
Greece to beat the giants in the draws
The “golden” season of Greece, which began with the Euro 2004 qualifiers and ended with the parallel qualification to the quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup, was accompanied by successes on the field, but also another, also important condition, presented by many.
Greece reached number 6 in the UEFA ranking and No. 8 in the FIFA ranking, which means that it gradually “disappeared” the big ones from its qualifying groups and (at least in theory) made its life easier in them.
He may have been able to beat strong teams on the grass at the time, but he certainly did not have to deal with many of them for an organization. She did well with the weakest and at least she was faithful to the big dates.
The situation in recent years has changed dramatically, it has been reversed. Greece is constantly called upon to face strong opponents and only if it beats them on the grass can it qualify for the final stages. This proves impossible with the current data.
The victory over Sweden looks like an exception to the rule of defeat by Spain in levels. Our country has not been able to get results from countries of this level for the last seven years. However, if it gets results from countries like Kosovo or Georgia, from countries like those that will face in the Nations League 2022-2023, the need for results against Spain and Sweden will gradually decrease. Because the mathematics and equations of the FIFA ranking are different and need a smarter treatment than those of a qualifying group.