On the day of reflection, it is worth focusing on the general state of Bulgarian democracy. The country has voted for parliament three times in one year. This can be interpreted as a crisis of representation, which cannot radiate stable governance. This is, after all, a demonstration of the sustainability of the constitutional framework: even in the combination of a pandemic and a rising share of the cost of politics, it develops according to the rules of the basic law. Moreover, the radicalization of the middle parties has not increased significantly and the most extreme political forms have been severely marginalized. Whatever crisis Bulgaria experiences, it is very far from the Weimar scenario, it comes together with the collapse of democratic institutions.

The benefits of democracy

This interpretation is confirmed by the data of a recent survey of public attitudes of Alpha Research and the Open Society Institute, conducted in October. In it, 56 percent of Bulgarians respond to democracy as the best form of government, and 28 percent disagree with this statement. For comparison, in 2018, when asked the same question, supporters of democracy were 45 percent and opponents 34 percent. The big conclusion on which these figures are introduced is that the early elections in 2021, as well as the protests in 2020, did not disappoint the Bulgarians from democracy, on the contrary – they convinced them to defend it.

The fact that the vast majority of young people – 64 percent – are in favor of democracy for their unequivocal choice also adds an optimistic note. People with higher education (72 percent) and residents of Sofia (71 percent) are also overrepresented among those who prefer democracy. The age differences in attitudes towards this form of government are particularly interesting. People over the age of 60 at the time of the 1989 changes were in their thirties and forties – they were then young admirers of reform and democracy. Today, most of them are skeptics.

Every ten years – new players

In the mentioned included survey, for the first time, it was a question of the populist attitudes among the voters according to the established model of the “Barometer for Populism” of the “Bertelsmann” Foundation. And here is a sudden one that needs an explanation. In Germany in 2020, 20.9 percent of voters have a pronounced populist attitude, 47.1 percent are non-populist and 32 percent are “mixed” – a more vague, intermediate category.

In 2021 in Bulgaria according to the respective methodology the results are: populists – 24.2 percent, non-populists 27.7 percent, mixed – 48.0 percent. The surprise is that the two sides do not differ dramatically in the share of outspoken populists. What seems to be the difference is the very large shares “mixed” in Bulgaria and the corresponding smaller shares of the expressed non-populists.

These numbers are important because the party systems in Bulgaria and Germany differ significantly. In the Germans established parties with traditions, while in Bulgaria at least every ten years, and even more, there is a serious transformation of the party system with a frequency of new players, some of whom are highly populist. You have similar phenomena in 2001 and 2009, as well as in early 2021. Smaller formations of this type were born in 2005 and 2014.

If the expressed “populists” in Bulgaria and Germany are similar shares, the big difference in the party systems of the two countries seems to be due to the low share of “non-populists” in our country. To put it more understandably, the average voter in Bulgaria is easily captivated by personal lifeguards, by heroes with special charisma who promise magical solutions in a short period of time. The reasons for this can be many – the Germans seem to have learned from the Weimar disaster and have developed immunity to personal charisma. Perhaps the fact that they have a longer democratic experience (in the western part of the country) helps them maintain stable and established parties.

The risks of the “everyone decides for themselves” approach

However, there is also something worrying in the Bulgarian situation, which can also lead to the fragmentation of the party system and the easy rise of personalist and populist organizations in it. These are the low levels of trust in the main rational collective tools for protecting people’s interests. For example, 50.2 percent believe that laws are generally unfair, and as many as 57.4 percent consider them incomprehensible. 84.9 percent are convinced that whatever the laws are, they do not apply equally to everyone, and 37 percent believe that even this does not comply with them. If the case then goes to court, the majority is certain that it will not receive a fair trial.

In such an environment, it is easy to conclude that everyone must do things for themselves and not rely on collective and solidary forms of protection. “I judge for myself” has really gone deep into the collective code and the manifestations of this syndrome in relation to the vaccination campaign with confirmation of the general rule.

Of course, there is no society that has survived the “everyone decides for themselves” policy. Crises are coming in which urgent collective action is needed – laws, lockdowns, compensatory measures, etc. And here’s the problem: who does not invest in standard and institutionalized forms of collective cooperation (parties are important for such an element), during the crisis there is an urgent need for an emergency savior. This savior is someone who has exceptional personal qualities, must make the necessary decisions and put things in order.

This is how the Bulgarian swing results from the lack of trust in the collective to the blind trust of the next savior, which instead of perseverance, education and professionalism in politics shines with miraculous qualities, extraordinary him and personal charisma.

The big task for Bulgarian democracy is to exclude itself from this cycle, locked between distrust in rational structures and blind following of personal charisma. Bulgaria needs parties that have a solution for a positive way out of the vicious circle, and do not demand admiration for any technical magical qualities. The political world has long been together.

The data are from a nationally representative survey of public opinion, conducted among the adult population of the country in the period 16-23 October 2021 by the method of direct standardized interview with tablets in the homes of the respondents. Respond with protection through a two-tier stratified sample by region and type of settlement with a quota based on gender, age and education. 1000 effective interviews were conducted. Maximum permissible standard deviation at national level with 95% guarantee probability: +/- 1.58% at 50% shares. The field research was conducted by Alpha Research as part of a project funded by the Open Society Institute and carried out jointly with the Center for Liberal Strategies. The comparative data from previous years are from research conducted and funded by the Open Society Institute.

This comment shows the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and Deutsche Welle as a whole.