Croatia – Russia, November 14, 2021: in which squad the Russian national team will play with Croatia, analysis before the main match of the year
Croatia has grown significantly compared to September. Back then, many of the rival’s leaders, playing in the European leagues, were just entering the season. And Modric, who is 100% a key player, was not there due to injury. Now the Real Madrid midfielder is back, he influences the game in all kinds of games.
In the game of the Russian national team, despite the score, a lot was confused. You need to be stronger in Split!
The main points that are important to consider before playing:
1) Croatia will put pressure, in principle, it does not sit deep. The structure of the pressure can change, it is important to be able to see the weak points in any of them. Either they are the flanks or the buffer spaces between the lines;
2) the pressure of the Russian national team will be important, since Croatia has a good positional structure – there are strong flank players. To give her the ball and sit down, lift the top of both wingers and begin to stretch our defenses. It is difficult to withstand – Slovakia in the victorious match in October, for example, was just lucky;
3) Croatia is actively using the center forward in the “false nine” format, this happens in any scheme. Kramaric sinks into the depths, helps to play the ball in the center or closer to the flanks, tries to pull the defenders behind him, and the partners (central midfielder Pashalich, flank midfielder Vlašić) at this time saturate the front line and open behind the back for throws;
4) With Modric Croatia is becoming much more dangerous to set (in the Moscow game Brozovic did not serve at all), this is also important.
And if the Russian national team gets into the joints? Here are the layouts
Goalkeeper
Safonov played a good match against Cyprus, helped out at the end of the first half when hitting after a set point at close range. There were questions about putting the ball into the game with someone else’s pressure, but there is still no reason to change the goalkeeper globally. Safonov will almost certainly remain number one. Guilherme is the first candidate to exit if something suddenly goes wrong.
Line of defense
There is no intrigue in the choice of central defenders – Dzhikia will return to the starting lineup and join Diveev. This is our main pair, which played under Karpin against all status rivals. Osipenko’s level is not high enough, even against Cyprus he made several mistakes (for example, he changed the setting twice inside the flank attacks – he simply did without an accurate overhang), a confident start of the attack from him was not traced either.
On the flanks of the defense, the story is more interesting. Terekhov dropped out due to injury, leaving four candidates: Sutormin, Karavaev, Kudryashov and Krugovoy. Kudryashov has reliability in a deep block, Krugovoy has excellent speed and a left leg, but I suppose it still makes sense to choose the first two candidates. Sutormin, who played decently with Cyprus, is on the right. Karavaeva (as in the first game with Croatia) – on the left.
The central defensive feature is also important here. Accordingly, the situation on the flank is “1 vs 2”, well-timed maneuvers of the full-backs are important.
Kudryashov will find it hard to move along the entire flank. But Krugovoy is a newcomer to the national team, and making a bet on him now is a risk. Although in the match against Spartak Daniel simply replaced Douglas Santos, who was eliminated due to injury, this was the highest class.
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Midfield line
It is clear that the main squad will return the favorite of the Barinov coaching staff, whom Karpin did not risk in the game with Cyprus due to the border situation with yellow cards. Dmitry will become the lower defensive midfielder, there is no alternative now. The same Fomin against the Cypriots in terms of defensive work is average, both in pressing and in positional defense, the support zone often failed. The problems are not only in Fomin, but also in the violation of the compactness and unpreparedness of the team for someone else’s 5-3-2 scheme, but the Dynamo midfielder was also mistaken and reacted slowly to what was happening.
You need to think carefully about the “eights”. It is important to release players who are ready to press and switch quickly, who have the strength for energy-intensive football. There are three main candidates: Golovin (to the left), Zobnin and Fomin (to the right). Choosing between the latter two non-obvious methods: Zobnin is in best shape by attack. I believe that the choice will still be made from the current state and adaptation to the structure of the pressure (Karpin has repeatedly spoken about Dynamo and Schwartz) – in favor of Fomin.
Erokhin’s chances to come out from the first minutes in the midfield are lower, he lacks power, and in the pressure against Cyprus, he sometimes did not work out enough.
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Line of attack
Smolov or Zabolotny? Smolov is a star, a high-profile scorer. He is able to perform an episode, act as an assistant. But – it is not very reliable. He is inclined to lose balls (even against Cyprus – two gross mistakes in possession, after which there were dangerous attacks, and also a flaw with Miranchuk on the flank at the end of the first half), so-so struggles and clings. Zabolotny is a hard worker with modest individual skill, but he works great in pressing and quickly switches from defender to defender. He will also hook the top, help get out of the pressure and remove the balls with standards at his goal. With the Croats, all this will be very important – therefore, I think the likelihood of the appearance of Zabolotny is quite high.
On the right, Ionov’s chances are high as the main pressing machine among the extreme forwards. Moreover, with Cyprus, Alexey was given only 20 minutes, he has the strength. Whereas the left forward is a more controversial issue. There is a great temptation to release Mostovoy again, Karpin was “very pleased” with him after Cyprus. Although Andrey only opened in the first first first first first connection to the network.
The final composition is something like this. It is unlikely that Karpin will change the system, and private adjustments, if they happen, will be local in nature.