The crisis on the border of the European Union and Belarus would not have been possible without the support of the Lukashenka regime by the Kremlin. Experts say this in an interview with the Russian service of the Voice of America, commenting on the drama unfolding in Europe with migrants from the Middle East. However, analysts say Vladimir Putin may limit this support if Lukashenko’s actions are bad for the already tepid relations between Moscow and the EU.

Alexander Lukashenko himself leaves the opportunity to return to contacts with Europe. This is what a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC says in his commentary. Janusz Bugayski (Janusz Bugayski):

“It seems that Lukashenka is burning bridges in his relations with the European Union. Previously, he acted more intelligently: he sent his foreign minister to various meetings with the EU, made small compromises, played cat and mouse in different ways, and now he just ruins everything. And behind this there is something else – we understand that the main thing for Lukashenka is his relationship with Moscow. That is, it is worth seeing who is pulling the strings in this situation, given that the collective farm chairman can hardly be more cunning than a KGB officer. “

An expert with this belt that he does not see an opportunity to connect Belarus with Russia: “Russia would like to control Belarus, but it will still be very costly economically. COVID-19 “.

A professor at the University of Alberta in Canada agrees that the government of Belarus is resorting to radical means. David Marples (David Marples). However, in his opinion, Warsaw could react more calmly and selectively:

“Lukashenka is using all the funds that he has left against the EU, and these funds are almost gone. It is, in a sense, cornered, under heavy sanctions, and its steps to use it is a gesture of despair. And he, I think, is satisfied with the reaction of Poland, which, in my opinion, in this case is not distinguished by wisdom. In this case, she could consider individual cases. Out of two or three thousand cargoes it was possible to let someone in ”.

According to Janusz Bugayski, Russia, despite Moscow’s restrained reaction to the crisis that gripped the Polish-Belarusian border, is a participant in what is happening:

“For Putin, this is an opportunity to once again tease the European Union and NATO, test their strength, along with the gas war that he actually unleashed in recent weeks. We must not forget that all this is happening along with other actions of Russia in European countries, where elections were held, in which Russia influenced Moldova, which Moscow periodically threatens, and so on. I think that it can come to armed clashes on the border, although I doubt that Russia wants exactly war. And all this may be a distraction from Putin’s struggle for the “main prize” – Ukraine. “

The fact that the difficult situation on the border between Poland and Belarus is playing into the hands of official Moscow is not doubted by an expert from the University of Florida, formerly the head of the human rights organization Freedom House. David Kramer (David Kramer):

“Let’s put this in context: the migrant crisis is happening at the same time as the threatening build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. This raises concerns about the US and EU authorities about what Putin can do about Ukraine. And Putin, I believe, is also behind the way Lukashenka uses migrants from the Middle East against the three countries of the European Union and NATO: mainly against Poland, to a degree against Lithuania, and on a somewhat smaller scale against Latvia.

David Kramer is confident that the Kremlin should be held accountable for supporting the Belarusian dictator:

“In my opinion, the situation requires an immediate response, which would include sanctions against Russian officials who advocate for Lukashenka. If we do not do this, then further sanctions against Lukashenka himself, which are also necessary, will not have the desired effect. We must act against those who support Lukashenka, and they are mainly in Moscow. Its also the Gulf countries, especially the UAE, and we must tell them clearly that this support will have repercussions. “

Not only “burning bridges”

In the actions of Lukashenka, as Janusz Bugayski says in an interview with the Voice of America, not only despair can be traced:

“Lukashenka wants to use Putin, that Belarus is threatened, at least in the S-400 air defense systems, as well as other military-economic aid. Lukashenka explains all this by the increased EU sanctions, as well as the alleged military invasion from Poland, and so on. And he is trying to create a situation where Putin will really need him as a kind of buffer, and a buffer that is clearly anti-Western. “

The security service of this “buffer” can be attracted by the military, notes David Marples: “Russia can send its units to the border of Poland and Belarus – the interaction of the military and special services of Moscow. now. And this border has always been for the USSR. It will be unusual if they cross it, but I don’t think this will happen. “

At the same time, in an attempt to win the Kremlin over to his side, Lukashenka, according to Marples, goes too far:

“I think that Lukashenka’s threat to cut off gas to Europe cannot actually be realized, because it’s not his pipeline, he sold it to Russia. And he can close the “gas tap”, this will cause a lot of problems for Russia if he does so. Also, Russia will soon have a working Nord Stream-2, which generally nullifies all the threats that are associated with the pipeline through Belarus. “

According to a professor at the University of Alberta, Putin will not risk too much for the regime in Belarus:

“If Aeroflot falls under the banned flights, it will create chaos for it and become a disaster. We can already see how the bans on flights have affected Belavia: the company is barely breathing. So, perhaps, Putin’s support for Lukashenka in this situation has limits. For now, he definitely supports Minsk in this situation with migrants and blames Poland for what is happening, but I don’t think he will allow things to come to a ban on Aeroflot flights. ”

West will no longer talk to Lukashenka

David Kramer uses the situation with migrants to force the West to talk to Lukashenka again. According to the ex-president of Freedom House, the Russian president generally has a low opinion of the resilience of Western leaders:

“I think that the summit between Biden and Putin in Switzerland did not produce any results – on the contrary, Putin considers the West to be weak and ineffective, and we must make it serious in order to quickly and toughly dissuade him from this. This is a double threat from two authoritarian rulers, Putin and Lukashenko, but it comes primarily from the Kremlin. “

“We remember how Mike Pompeo came to Minsk with a completely inappropriate visit in February 2020, like John Bolton in August 2019. The previous administration had the wrong approach: they thought that it was possible to work with Lukashenka, and even lure him further from Moscow. This approach was completely disastrous, ”says David Kramer.

In turn, David Marples says that Europe will not talk to Lukashenka, and Russia, on the contrary, may be inclined to improve relations with Brussels in the future:

“Now it is difficult to imagine an improvement in relations between Russia and the European Union, but I would not rule out that at all. And if such an improvement occurs, Moscow can tell Lukashenka: enough of this tension, end it. The Europeans have now fully opened their eyes to Lukashenka. It took some time, but now it is simply impossible for them to return to dialogue with him: when they talked to him, in the past. I think they understood everything after the episode with the forced landing of the plane, after which even they understood that Lukashenka was a dangerous and irresponsible terrorist. ”