Covid-19: Portugal could reach 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in less than a month | Coronavirus
The epidemic activity of covid-19 in Portugal is now with “moderate intensity” and “increasing trend at national level”, according to the monitoring report of the “lines red ” Published this Friday by the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) and the National Institute of Health Doctor Ricardo Jorge (INSA). If the increase in the rate of transmissibility in the country is maintained, the cumulative incidence threshold of 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days can be reached in less than a month.
The “moderate intensity” reported in this week’s report reveals a worsening of the situation compared to the previous ones, which showed “reduced intensity”. The documents warn that the “worsening of the epidemiological situation in Europe and the increase in epidemic intensity in Portugal should condition an increase in the health system’s alert level”, specifically in relation to the increases in the demand for healthcare in the next month. Still, “the pressure on health services and the impact on mortality are reduced”.
No chapter on mortality, the document says that the “decreasing trend in covid-19 mortality “has been interrupted: it has gone from 6.4 deaths in 14 days per million inhabitants to 8.0, an increase of 25%. It represents an “interruption of the downward trend that has been observed in recent weeks”, even though it remains below the threshold of 20.0 deaths per million population defined by the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC, acronym) and the national threshold of 10.0 deaths, revealing “a reduced impact of the pandemic in terms of covid-19-specific mortality”.
Transmissibility and increase increase across the country
The report indicates that Portugal recorded, in the period under analysis from 3 to 7 November, a transmissibility index – R
There was also an increase across all regions of the 14-day cumulative incidence. As of November 10, the national registration was 138 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the monitoring report, with the Algarve being the region with the highest registration (229), although “below the threshold of 240 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants”. On the other hand, the North was the region with the lowest value (87). Lisbon and Tagus Valley registered 140 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, while the Center recorded 204 and the Alentejo 103 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days.
In terms of age, the 20 to 29 age group continues to be the most affected by the infection, with 198 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Although there is a “globally increasing trend in most age groups”, the most advanced age group, people over 80 years old presents a “stable trend” and with “a lower risk of infection than the general population”, with 112 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (two less than the week before).
Stable admissions
Regarding hospitalizations for covid-19, on 10 November the country recorded 64 patients in the ICU on the continent, which corresponds to 25% of the threshold defined as critical of 255 beds occupied. This represents a drop from 29% the week before.
The report highlights that this indicator “assumed a stable trend”. However, the age group from 60 to 79 years, which has the highest number of covid-19 cases admitted to intensive care units, shows “an increasing trend in recent weeks”.
The North region is the one that accumulates more patients hospitalized in ICU (25), and also has the highest occupancy rate of these units, with 33% of the 75-bed risk threshold.
Proportion of positivity increases
The “red lines” note a 17% increase in tests performed in the last seven days compared to the previous week, with 244,367 performed this week reporting (209,598 in the last). Of the tests performed, 3.4% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, an increase from 2.8% the week before. Despite the growing trend, it remains below the 4% threshold.
The Delta variant remains dominant “in all regions”, with a relative frequency of 99.7% in cases in the last week evaluated (25 to 31 October).
