How Sweden averted the Covid disaster WITHOUT lockdown
Sweden has suffered fewer Covid deaths than most of Europe and still registers a lower infection rate, according to figures which indicate that their lockdown game has paid off.
The Scandinavian nation became an international outlier last year when it defied scientific advice and refused to follow the rest of the world in shutting down society in order to slow down the spread of the virus.
Sweden’s economy has not only bounced faster than any other country in the EU, the latest data show that it has also fared better than most when it comes to deaths during the pandemic.
Sweden has suffered nearly 1,500 confirmed Covid deaths per million people, according to Oxford University-based research platform Our world in data, which is lower than the European average (1,800).
The UK – which has suffered three national shutdowns and several regional firefighters – has registered 2,100 per million by comparison, while Belgium and Italy both have prices above 2,000.
When you look at the excess mortality during the pandemic, Sweden ends up in only 21st place out of 31 European countries with 5 percent more deaths since March last year than you could expect.
The United Kingdom, Italy and Spain, on the other hand, have each suffered about 10 percent more deaths than the average under Covid.
Statistics say that excess mortality is the most accurate way to measure the burden of pandemics on health because it accounts for testing differences between countries and includes deaths.
Sweden also currently has a lower infection rate than most EU countries, with only 100 per million people testing positive daily compared to 800 in Austria, almost 700 in Belgium and Ireland and 500 in the UK.
Although Sweden chose not to lock in completely early in the pandemic, stricter legally binding curbs were introduced last winter as falls and deaths increased.
Sweden has suffered nearly 1,500 confirmed Covid deaths per million people, according to the Oxford University-based research platform Our World in Data, which is lower than the European average (1,800). The UK – which has suffered three national shutdowns and several regional firefighters – has registered 2,100 per million by comparison, while Belgium and Italy both have prices above 2,000
When you look at the excess mortality during the pandemic, Sweden ends up in only 21st place out of 31 European countries with 5 percent more deaths since March last year than you could expect. The United Kingdom, Italy and Spain, on the other hand, have each suffered about 10 percent more deaths than the average under Covid. Statistics say that excess mortality is the most accurate way to measure the burden of pandemic on health because it accounts for test differences between countries and includes deaths.
Sweden also currently has a lower infection rate than most EU countries, with only 100 per million people testing positive daily compared to 800 in Austria, almost 700 in Belgium and Ireland and 500 in the UK
These included a ban for groups of eight or more people, restrictions on the number in gyms and shops and a curfew at 20 in pubs and restaurants.
Although Sweden seems to have done better than continental Europe during the pandemic, it has performed significantly worse compared to its closest neighbors.
Norway and Finland, for example, have suffered about 200 Covid deaths per million people since the virus was first sown on the continent – seven times lower than Sweden’s tax.
In Denmark, the number is around 400. All three nations have had stricter restrictions during large parts of the pandemic, which has probably played a role.
When looking at excess mortality, Norway and Denmark have registered fewer deaths than normal, while Covid and Finland have seen just over 1 per cent more deaths than average.
Cambridge University epidemiologist Raghib Ali told MailOnline: “If you think Sweden’s strategy was a success story, it depends on which countries you compare it with.
‘If you think it should have a similar pace [of Covid deaths] to its neighbors Finland, Norway and Denmark or other countries such as Germany and the Netherlands?
“Whichever side you come down to determines whether it went better or worse.”
Dr Ali said that a deduction from Sweden’s voluntary lockdown system was that it shows the power of people’s small behavioral changes.
“Even though Sweden did not have a government – forced lockdown, it did have a type of voluntary lockdown that was well complied with.
“What we have learned from Sweden – and the UK – is that people’s voluntary behavior can get countries over a peak without mandatory restrictions, even if they alone can not prevent major outbreaks.”
It comes as daily Covid infections in the UK continued to fall today, reinforcing hopes that the third wave may have already reached its peak.
The Department of Health published a further 32,322 positive tests across the country over the past 24 hours, a decrease of 19.4 percent on Monday. The falls have decreased from week to week on all days except one since October 24.
At the same time, 57 people died within 28 days after being tested positive, which marked an increase compared to 40 last week. Deaths are a few weeks after falls due to the time it takes for someone to become seriously ill after capturing Covid.
But experts say they expect deaths and hospital rates to follow soon. New information about hospitalization is expected later this week.
Meanwhile, NHS England’s chief executive today was accused of “abusing” Covid statistics after exaggerating the number of infected patients in hospitals with the virus.
During a round of interviews this morning, Amanda Pritchard suggested that there were “14 times” more coronavirus patients in hospitals now compared to “this time last year”.
The claim was picked up and circulated by a number of regular, left-wing news channels including Sky News, ITV and The i.
Mrs Pritchard made the comments when she urged people to come forward for their booster vaccines and warned that healthcare was under “very real pressure”.
Nevertheless, the latest data from the government’s dashboard show that there were 800 average daily admissions of the coronavirus and 7,000 inpatients in England on Friday.
This time in November 2020, for comparison, the country registered approximately 1,300 Covid hospital admissions every day and there were more than 11,000 patients in hospitals with the disease.
NHS England was later forced to clarify that Pritchard was referring to statistics from the beginning of September, when hospital prices for Covid were actually higher than at the same time last year.
Professor Francois Balloux, director of the University College London Genetics Institute, described Pritchard’s claim as “nonsense” and criticized news organizations for not challenging it.
Other researchers warned that the NHS’s executive director had “misused” the figures, while political commentators said it was either the result of “incompetence or falsehood”.