If the current growth in the case of covid-19 cases at the national level is maintained, the country could surpass, in the space of one to two months, the 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days – one of the red lines of the pandemic.
This alert appears in the monitoring report of the red lines for covid-19, released every Friday by the Directorate-General of Health (DGS) and by the National Institute of Health Doctor Ricardo Jorge (INSA): “To maintain this rate of nationwide, it is estimated that the threshold of 240 cases in 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants can be exceeded in 1 to 2 months”, it reads.
According to the document, the number of new cases of infection per 100,000 inhabitants, accumulated in the last 14 days, was 98 cases, “with an increasing trend at the national level”.
The transmissibility index (Rt) “presents a value equal to or greater than 1, indicating an increasing trend in the incidence of influences” at national level (1.08) and in most regions, with the exception of Alentejo “which presents a stable trend” (0.98).
The report indicates that next week will be decisive in verifying whether the growth of the pandemic will have an impact on the pressure on health services.
“The analysis of the different indicators reveals an epidemic activity of SARS-CoV-2 of reduced intensity, with a growing trend at the national level. The pressure on health services and the impact on mortality are reduced, but with a possible reversal of the trend and the beginning of the growth phase in ICU admissions. The evaluation next week will serve to confirm a possible reversal of the trend and the beginning of the growth phase with an impact on the pressure on health services”, he warns.