The rise in Covid-19 cases in recent weeks in Portugal is being “very slow” and may be close to peaking. This is the conviction of Carlos Antunes, mathematician and expert on the team at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon who has collaborated with health authorities during a pandemic.
This Thursday, after the meeting of the Council of Ministers, the Minister of Health, Marta Temido, informed that the country will remain in a state of alert due to the worsening of the epidemiological situation and that the country is expected to reach 1300 daily cases to November 7th.
Carlos Antunes understands the forecast, but explains that the situation is not worrying.
The increase in the infected was mainly among young people aged 18 to 25, coinciding with the return to higher education classes and the opening of bars and clubs on 1 October.
However, in the general scenario across the country, the increase has been “very slow”: “We are increasing, in the last month, an average rate of 1.3% per day which means that 55 days are used to double the cases.”
Carlos Antunes details that at the beginning of October the country had about 550 cases, on average, per day, and today there are close to 800, so “we went up very little in the space of a month, something completely different from what happened a year ago , because at this time of 2020 already available with 4000 daily cases”.
The growth of contagions was boosted by the fact that many young people still do not have complete vaccination, but in the meantime, this extra immunity has already been administered and the researcher finds signs of a slowdown in the contagions, even earlier.
“We are not in a worrying situation because the increase occurs in groups where there is no seriousness and apparently this increase in this younger group is also stabilizing”, he referred.
Finally, “in regional terms, the two regions with the highest rises – Centro and Lisboa and Vale do Tejo – are also reaching the peak of this epidemic wave”, concludes Carlos Antunes.