the virus is progressing mainly in Flanders, but is circulating further south
According to the latest Sciensano bulletin delivered on Tuesday, the virus is spreading faster in the north of the country. In fact, six provinces had a growth in the number of cases above the Belgian average (which is 75%). Among these provinces, four are in Flanders. In the lead, we find Limburg, with a growth of 180% over the last two weeks. This means that the number of recorded cases has almost tripled over this period. Next come the provinces of West Flanders (+ 112%) and Namur (+ 106%). As can be seen in the graph below, the provinces with the most significant outbreaks do not match those at the bottom of the immunization rankings.
On the other hand, it is well in the south of the country that the incidence remains the highest. This means that the virus is more present in Wallonia. In the top three, we find Walloon Brabant (779 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), the province of Liège (703 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) and then Brussels (637 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The incidence in Limburg soil amounts to 467, it is 462 in West Flanders. The Belgian average is 506, with a doubling time of 9 days. The national reproduction rate stands at 1.27 this Tuesday. When this number is greater than 1, it means that the virus is circulating more, increasing the risk of contamination.
There were 6,651 new cases in Belgium on Tuesday. To find such a statistic, you have to go back to November 2020, a few days after the peak of the second wave. In March 2021, at the height of the third wave, there were 4,898 cases.
A quarter of intensive care beds allocated to Covid
Could the progression of the virus continue, given the vaccination figures? To put it another way, could the outbreak in Flanders take place over time, despite vaccination figures higher than in other regions? Weeks should receive the answer.
These relatively low contamination rates – and an upward trend that has started for three weeks now – do not explode the curves in hospitals, so far saturation. As of Tuesday, there are 1,312 Covid patients in hospitals, including 260 in intensive care units (ICU).
However, the fear of a long-term increase exists in hospitals across the country, which will also go into phase 1A within two weeks. This means that 25% of the capacity of ICU beds will have to be allocated to Covid patients. This was already the case in ten establishments across the country. Brussels hospitals have never been able to go below the 50% threshold of intensive care beds assigned to Covid.