The last week of October will be a tough one for investors. Every day a mass of quarterly figures is on the agenda. Continuing concerns about the combination, the fourth wave of corona that is emerging in Europe and the renewed climb in the oil price are making investors cautious. The European stock exchanges therefore remain close to home: around 12.10 pm the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.1 percent higher.

The fact that the Bel20 does a fraction better – the index by 0.2 percent to 4,228 points – is due to Aperam, among others

(+1.4%), Argentinax

(+1.3%) and Colruyt

(+1.2%). Jef Colruyt at the annual meeting.

AB InBev

(+0.6%, 48.50 euros) has not seen the last of a target price reduction by Fernand de Boer of Degroof Petercam, who previously maintained his buy recommendation.

His price target drops in the run-up to the third quarter figures from 72 to 68 euros. De Boer thinks that the results will not be good on Thursday. He thinks volumes are down 1.6 percent and gross operating profit (EBITDA) is down 5.6 percent. Still, he expects the brewer to maintain its outlook – EBITDA growth between 8 and 12.

More important, according to the analyst, is what AB InBev will say about cost inflation, especially higher aluminum prices. Looking at the consensus estimates for 2022, it seems the market has already factored in the higher costs, he notes. In his view, however, the market reflects the pricing power of the beer sector and AB InBev in particular.

De Boer also believes that AB InBev’s progress in sales, earnings growth and strong pricing power is not reflected in the valuation, so the stock is trading at a significant discount against other beer producers. He also assumes that the devaluation will continue and does not think that Altria will sell its stake in AB at the current level. All reasons to repeat the buy recommendation.

One of the best climbers on this calm trading day is Exmar

. The operator of gas tankers and lessor of gas treatment infrastructure is steaming ahead 4.3 percent to 4.57 euros. At Kepler Cheuvreux, the price target climbs from 5.30 to 6.20 euros, while the buy recommendation remains intact.

The reason for the increase is that the employment opportunity for the floating LNG plant Tango FLNG has increased significantly due to the difference in gas prices produced in the US and Asia and Europe. For gas exporters who want to capitalize on this, the Tango can be an excellent solution.

Based on the probability of employment and the conclusion of a contract on terms, the analyst’s real valuation of the Tango FL from 3.40 to 4.30 euros per share.

In contrast, the valuation of the regasification platform FSRU S188 fell from 1.90 to 1.60 euros per share. The analyst has become more conservative here. Read: it is becoming more difficult to find a (good) contract.

He has also become more cautious about the LPG segment – Exmar’s gas tanker business. He sees spot freight rates for vertical gas carriers, which hit record levels early this year, reached about a quarter lower in the years to come.

Euronav

the rally resumes with a push from KBC Securities. According to Olivier Vandewoude, the tanker sector is preparing for a – late – Covid recovery. There are various for that.

Demand for oil will climb again towards pre-pandemic levels in 2022 as the global economy ramps up. The switch to oil could also provide a boost to cost steps.

On the oil supply side, OPEC+ has been increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day per month for several months now. In practice, this does not quite work out because some OPEC members cannot keep up due to underinvestment and maintenance problems.

Positive for the tanker operators is that the tanker fleet is growing only slightly, with an average of 1.3 percent per year and 4.2 percent over the five years. The simple order book is below the average for at least 25 years, a number of old tankers will probably be scrapped.

Vandewoude shares his price target for Eurona of 10.20 to 11 euros and maintains his buy recommendation. The share gains 0.5 percent to 9.41 euros. It has risen 45 percent since mid-August.