Wastewater analysis expert: In Prague, we are at values like when 10,000 were infected iROZHLAS
The number of people infected with coronavirus may now be much higher in Prague than official data suggest. It may even be similar to the most serious wave of the epidemic this March. This is shown by new, as yet unpublished analyzes of wastewater samples carried out by the research team of the University of Chemical Technology. “According to the data we have, it seems that we are at similar levels as at the end of March this year,” Jan Bartáček told Radiožurnál.
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What are the results of your survey – how many people in the metropolis do you think can have covid-19?
Our numbers of infected are conditioned only by estimates of what we see in the amount of viruses or virus fragments in the wastewater. According to the data we have, it seems that we are at similar levels as at the end of March this year, when there were about 10,000 infected in Prague.
Wastewater samples revealed more covid-19 infected than official data. Listen to an interview with Jan Bartáček
Are these the results for the whole of Prague or can you separate and compare individual city districts?
We collect data for almost the whole of Prague. The main sewer, which we take, drains water from approximately 50 percent of the population in Prague. In addition, we have various smaller sites. In cooperation with Prague Waterworks and Sewerage, we take samples rather than city districts and some specific housing estates or the vicinity of bus terminals, university dormitories, etc.
You perform analyzes of wastewater samples together with Prague Waterworks and Sewerage, as you stated. They are to serve as the first signal of a deteriorating situation. How far in advance can you predict the development of the epidemic?
This is a difficult question. In the literature, a range of two to three weeks in advance is commonly reported. We will know the exact number after some time, when we will be able to evaluate the data retrospectively. We warned of larger increases three weeks ago. That would be the lead.
Already at the beginning of October, you said in our broadcast that the data obtained from your regular monitoring began to deviate from official statistics. You mentioned fewer tests as possible reasons, more infected children with a milder course. Is it still valid?
Yes, but that is a question for epidemiology. These are our main explanations. We work with the hypothesis that, for example, due to the delta variant, people excreted orders of magnitude more virus into wastewater. So far, this is just speculation. Unfortunately, even official data from the last week seem to show that there are many people who, for many objective and subjective reasons, do not test and do not know about them.
‚Tak prudký zvrat jsme nečekali. Lidi čekají na stovky mrtvých denně.‘ 6 expertů hodnotí další vývoj covidu
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Spolupráce s úřady
Mají vaše data epidemiologové a ministerstvo zdravotnictví? Konzultují s vámi situaci?
Docela úzce spolupracujeme s Státním zdravotním ústavem, poslední dobou máme dobrou spolupráci i s pražskou hygienou. Ministerstvo zdravotnictví o datech ví, zatím nás ale nebralo příliš vážně. Byli bychom rádi, kdyby se s námi spojili epidemiologové, kteří by dokázali data lépe analyzovat a použít, než to dokážeme my.
Oslovujete tímto opoziční AntiCovid tým?
Nemyslel jsem to politicky. Ale kdokoli, kdo bude mít zájem s námi diskutovat a pomoci nám s interpretací dat, je vítaný.
Spolu s pražskou hygienou se nově zaměřujete na vzorky odpadních vod u škol, kolejí nebo domovů pro seniory. K čemu data pak slouží?
Podle našeho názoru je to zajímavá možnost, jak přispět k řízení epidemie. Například u domovů pro seniory, což je spolupráce, která se zrovna rozjíždí, tak tam budeme podle našich zkušeností schopni relativně brzy odhalit to, že v domově důchodců se začíná nákaza šířit a můžeme to odhalit dříve než testování. To nám přijde potencionálně velmi zajímavé.
U škol je to také zajímavá věc – rádi bychom, aby naše testy zamezily tomu, že nějaká škola půjde zbytečně do karantény. Je tam opět předstih oproti poznatkům z klinického testování.
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