Hanover (dpa / lni) – If Lower Saxony were to be elected to the state parliament next Sunday, the government majority would switch from red-black to red-green again. This is the result of a representative survey that the Institute for Demoskopie in Allensbach published on Wednesday – around a year before the state elections. Nevertheless, the people in Lower Saxony seem largely satisfied with the government work of the incumbent grand coalition.
On behalf of the Drei Quellen Mediengruppe, pollsters surveyed more than 1,100 citizens about the political situation in the country in September and October. However, opinion polls are only snapshots and say nothing about the election result. You are always fraught with uncertainty.
Accordingly, 34 percent of those eligible to vote would currently vote for the SPD and 26 percent for the CDU. The Greens would have suffered losses compared to the last polls and came to 15 percent, the FDP, on the other hand, could look forward to a double-digit result (10 percent). The AfD would again be represented with 7 percent in the state parliament, while the left would again fail at the 5 percent hurdle (4 percent). 4 percent of the votes went to other parties.
If the SPD and the Greens together got 49 percent of the vote, they would have a majority in parliament, since parties with less than 5 percent do not get any seats in the state parliament. Given these values, a grand coalition and various tripartite alliances would also be conceivable.
Prime Minister Stephan Weil (SPD) should be happy about the results. Weil had made it clear again and again that – in the event of a victory in the state elections in autumn 2022 – he would rely on a new edition of the red-green coalition in the country.
According to a survey also published on Wednesday by the opinion research institute Insa for the “Bild”, the SPD would even win twice as many votes as the CDU in an election on Sunday, namely 39 percent (plus 2.1 compared to 2017). The CDU would therefore incur even more severe losses and land at only 19 percent (minus 14.6). Insa interviewed 1000 people in mid-October.
“If you look at the recent shifts between the SPD and CDU, these are mainly due to changed preferences among older voters,” said Volker Schmidt, managing director of the Drei Quellen media group in Hanover on Wednesday. The question is now whether these relocations are established or whether the Union will succeed in making amends in this group.
The incumbent state government of the Lower Saxony was largely rated positively. 43 percent said they were satisfied with the work of the grand coalition, 24 percent were critical. Every third person did not want to make a clear judgment.
43 percent of the respondents stated that Lower Saxony did well within the scope of its possibilities. However, 37 percent believed the country could do more. This is the conviction especially among those under 30 and those aged 45 to 59 who remain Schmidt. “It is precisely these two age groups that most urgently address the country’s problems: bureaucracy, rents, digital infrastructure.”
The Prime Minister Weil (SPD) gave a good report. Among the Lower Saxony people who recognized him as a person (91 percent), he enjoyed a positive reputation at 64 percent. 43 percent were satisfied with Weil’s work (2020: 46 percent), and one in five were dissatisfied. 38 percent could not form a final opinion.
With 41 percent of the opinion, a relative majority thinks that the prime minister is more suitable than his opponent Bernd Althusmann (CDU). “On the one hand, this is due to its high popularity in its own warehouse,” Schmidt said. Althusmann knew about three quarters of Lower Saxony with 78 percent of the survey, 55 percent rated him positively. However, currently only 16 percent wanted him as future prime minister.
It was noticeable, however, that when it came to the Prime Minister’s question, the group of the undecided was still the largest, said Schmidt. Especially those under 30-year-olds would have had difficulties with Weil and Althusmann, here with 53 percent more than half had no preferences.
After Weil and Althusmann, Interior Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) followed with a popularity rating of 74 percent, of which 53 percent gave him a positive rating. Behind them were Minister of Education Grant Hendrik Tonne (SPD), Minister of the Environment Olaf Lies (SPD), Minister of Agriculture Barbara Otte-Kinast (CDU) and Minister of Social Affairs Daniela Behrens (SPD). The only politician among the “Top Ten” who is not a minister was Stefan Birkner (FDP).
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 211020-99-667017 / 4