Banner image: Ubisoft / Kirill Bashkirov
The last EUL game day is upon us, and there is still a lot at stake.
Team Vitality and Rogue could possibly beat their tickets to this year’s first international tournament. However, they can not be calm: if they slip, cowana and Virtus.pro pinch their heels.
There are a number of possible situations, so let’s cover how each team that is unconfirmed for Sweden Major can qualify for the tournament.
It’s pretty simple for Team Empire; they just need to at least go to overtime in their game against NAVI. One more point will make Empire out of a possible tiebreaker jungle if Cowana Gaming were to win their game in regulation.
There is no doubt that Empire has the easiest way to Sweden’s major.
Rogue needs two points, or at least one overtime victory. The problem facing them is that their last game is against Team Vitality, which is only one point behind them in the standings. For both teams, that game is in fact a “do-or-die” match: if there is a loss in the regulation, the loser can end up outside Sweden’s Major.
But if Rogue only gets two points, they will be outside the cowana’s striking range. If Rogue wins, they’re in. Of all the teams that have a great chance of missing Sweden, Rogue’s situation is by far the most uncomplicated.
When it comes to tiebreakers, Rogue is still in a good place. They hold their heads against cowana and Virtus.Pro, effectively ensuring that these two teams need to jump them in points to steal their place – a feat that Rogue could easily close the door on with a win in overtime or regulation.
Vitality is in a similar but different position than Rogue. They are one point ahead of Cowana, so they will need all three points in their match against Rogue to completely seal a tiebreaker scenario.
If Vitality wins in overtime, they are still in danger. Cowana plays Heroic, the last place team in the EUL, and holds a tiebreaker over Vitality. Cowana will probably take three points from that game, and if Vitality does not put distance between them and cowana, they will sit in fifth place, on the outside and look inside.
Vitality holds its own destiny in its hands, but only barely. They need seven innings and for Rogue not to hit six innings. If they can make a regulatory profit, they will make the major. Anything but that, and it’s going to be a little tough.
A quick look at the position would tell you that cowana is not in a good place, but a further look at the schedule and tiebreaker rules tells a different story.
Cowana plays Heroic, who in theory is the easiest possible opponent. If cowana takes care of business, they are actually not in the worst place. The best case scenario for them is that Rogue beats Vitality, as Cowana holds tiebreaker over Vitality.
Cowana can technically capture Rogue as well, but the chance of this scenario is significantly narrower. If Vitality wins, cowana better home it is in regulation.
But cowana must be aware of a team in the tail, one that can destroy everything: Virtus.Pro.
Due to an extremely slow start on stage, Virtus.Pro is in one of the worst positions, but they are not quite out of it yet.
VP can not catch Rogue, the points gap is too extreme. They need Vitality lose in regulation to have a snowball chance in hell to make the major. The Russian side must first defeat Team Secret in regulation.
Effectively, Virtus.Pro’s future lies in Heroic’s hands. If Heroic can steal a victory from cowana (it must be in overtime to force a three-way tie) and Rogue can completely stop Vitality from getting a single point, VP can make Major … off round-differential, provided that they win the right number of rounds.
Virtus.Pro is not mathematically out of Major battle yet, but the odds of them doing Major are astronomically low. Stranger things have happened, and there is still a chance, but it is narrow.