For the economists of via dell’Astronomia “the climb of the GDP Italian in 2021 is stronger than expected“. The Study Center of Confindustria “provides a + 6.1%, two points more than the April estimates, followed by a further + 4.1% in 2022 “; And he explains:” This robust restart of GDP, equal to over + 10% in the two-year period, after almost -9% of 2020, would bring our economy back above pre-crisis levels in the first half of 2022, in advance of initial expectations “(last quarter).” The upward revision is mainly explained by the more limited impact, compared to what was feared, of the Delta variant of Covid“.
However, the gap compared to the pre-pandemic at the moment remains wider than that of the other main European partners, because the fall of 2020 in Italy was greater than elsewhere: in the second quarter of 2021 it was -3.8% compared to the fourth of 2019; in Germany by -3.3%, in France by -3.2% while the United States has already reached the pre-crisis level in the second quarter of 2021. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2021 “the expansion of GDP will stand at In fact, the thrust of the gap to be filled is running out after the crash “. According to the CsC scenario, “Italy would grow over the course of 2022 at a pace around the + 0.7% on average per quarter, however much more than the + 0.3% per quarter recorded in the 2015-2018 period “.
The main reasons for the higher growth expected in 2022 compared to the pre-crisis past are: on the one hand, the still incomplete recovery of private consumption and of trade with foreign countries (of services), which should therefore continue next year; on the other hand, the beneficial effects of Pnrr and of expansionary fiscal policy (which, however, is not taken into account in the forecast given that the Budget Bill has not yet been presented), which will further fuel investments. In this phase of the recovery after the Covid shock, again taking over the economists of via dell’Astronomia, “i to consume are gradually taking over from exports as a driving force for the climb, placing themselves alongside investments “and” services becoming more dynamic than industry, which was restarted between the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 “;” In the second half of already 2021 and then in 2022, as already in spring, a recovery of household spending Mostly in services. In particular for the shopping outside the home and for me trips, until April from the conditions for the pandemic “.