Evaluated the attack against Lithuania: this is an introduction to the black part of the script
The question of the meetings of the Seimas National Security and Defense Committee (NSGC), what lessons have been learned from the migrant crisis.
Kasčiūnas: the line between threats is blurring
“The crisis wants to be stabilized, of course, it has not gone anywhere, but we already need to think about the benefits of lessons. Apparently, both global and complex are needed [galvoti]. And for myself, and when those experts make it clear that the word hybrid, which we use very often, <...> testifies that in these 21st century, conflict and aggression will not be purely traditional. He has a lot of very civilian elements, ”Laurynas Kasčiūnas, the chairman of the committee and the conservative, said at the NSGK meeting.
According to him, at first glance, the crisis may seem civilian, but in the long run may also acquire armed elements.
“It simply came to our notice then. The nature of the crisis and the pressure may change. Here the state must react flexibly, “the parliamentarian assured.
According to L. Kasčiūnas, what can be seen in the migrant crisis, we offer the first blow to the internal affairs system. According to the chairman of the committee, the internal affairs systems and the work of all officials need to be viewed not only from the prism of law enforcement, but also from the point of view of security and national defense.
“It simply came to our notice then [NATO] Limits of Article 5. In the case of military aggression, knowledge is the Law on Military Status, in which case the institutions of the Ministry of the Interior become part of the armed forces. The algorithm is filled in here, we work on it and so on.
However, before Article 5, in the so-called gray area, the MIA system had a first blow, they were the first link in the response and that big one obviously needs to be strengthened, ”said the NSGK chairman.
A hybrid threat – everything between peace and war?
Linas Kojala, a political scientist and director of the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC), says it is very difficult to define what hybrid threats are, where they start and where they end.
“Probably the most accurate definition is that a hybrid threat is almost everything that is between peace and between conventional warfare. But in that case, that gap is very wide, “said L. Kojala.
According to him, NATO experts have recently conducted a study on the subject, which identified hybrid interference as examples of hybrid threats.
“What Lithuania and many of our other allies have experienced, with the aim of stealing election campaigns,” the political scientist said.
According to L. Kojala, the experts singled out the promotion of social differences as one of the hybrid threats.
“We are probably already in Lithuania now, when we are trying to exploit the vulnerability of the society to achieve geopolitical goals from the perspectives of third countries through the polarization of political debates, through the emphasis on cultural, ethnic and social differences,” he explained.
The political scientist also singled out the undermining of trust in the state and the direct attempt to influence public opinion.
“[Menkinimas] is also involved with the institutions, with their reaction, as they are presented, what information is provided about the functioning of state institutions, to the possibilities of action, which, as knowledge, is often inflated and thus at the same time discredit the entire state apparatus.
<...> Lithuania is one of the experts on the topic of disinformation, understanding how public opinion is manipulated and what process it may have, ”says L. Kojala.
Many elements of the hybrid threat have been used in the migration crisis
NATO experts have added diplomatic and economic pressure, cyber operations, terrorism and espionage to the hybrid threats, but, as Mr Kojala said, the list is certainly not exhaustive and can be expanded.
“That coverage is also large in terms of specific migration issues <...> we would see that at least a few elements have been, are or can be used directly, ”says the director of RESC.
“Hybrid threats are complex, it is very difficult to have an algorithm that should be applied universally, but at the same time that flexibility suggests that cryptocurrencies are possible, which would need to be provided for a single case if it could be used in a broader context.
<...> The wide network required for a systematic response responds less and makes better use of its advantages, wants to spread [kitų] deficiency. This should not be done in a crisis, but proactively in advance.
Consistency is important from a communication perspective. We probably felt that in the context of migration as well. It may not have always been that consistency, it is not always possible in a democratic society, but the more it is, the more the strategic goals that are set from the communication perspectives will be achieved effectively, ”said L. Kojala.
The blackest scenario is possible
“We have had many times to participate in and analyze various hybrid attacks in all kinds of crisis management simulations. Who can see very clearly that it is very convenient to be on the side of the red team there. In this case, if it means the object in its own name – on the Russian side. Why? Because there are very few restrictions: ethical, legal and other, ”said Liudas Zdanavičius, a policy analyst at the Defense Analysis Center of the General Jonas Zemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy.
According to him, during a hybrid attack, the state “target” is very severely constrained by various regulations. According to L. Zdanavičius, if the hybrid attacks are against the Western country, it wants to achieve “beat concessions” or gain an advantage in some negotiations.
“But if we are talking about such countries as Lithuania, Georgia, Ukraine, the blackest scenario is possible, that it is an introduction and a preparatory stage for a conventional attack. This is a very, very dangerous thing, “said the analyst.
According to L. Zdanavičius, the most important parts of hybrid attacks are testing, when attacking and seeing how the country will react.
“If the defense is seen to be very effective, there is a way back. We see that in Ukraine as well, “he said.
In order for the hybrid attack to work even more effectively, according to L. Zdanavičius, he would like to hide the fact that different measures are related, such that the migration crisis goes hand in hand with information and cyber attacks.
“It simply came to our notice then. <...> Interfaces are hidden in every way. The attacking character is trying to hide his connection with what is happening, ”said L. Zdanavičius.
Belarus learned from other countries
Speaking about the migrant crisis, L. Zdanavičius said that he could not rule out that not only Belarus but also Russia was in the “red team”, which either gave permission for such actions or was informed about the planned attack.
According to the analyst, the organizers of the hybrid attack were looking for attention to how the 2015 migrant crisis seems to have completely failed the European Union’s migration policy. L. Zdanavičius assured that Belarus had drawn inspiration from other countries about how illegal migration could act as a weapon.
“Morocco put pressure on Spain very easily by simply lifting border controls and sending migrant flows. <...> Turks v. Greece. In 2020, they simply collected 38 thousand in Istanbul. people, brought them to the border and pushed them out to the Greeks, ”about L. Zdaavičius.
According to him, migrants as a weapon is also useful in Russia.
“It simply came to our notice then. We all remember fondly those famous Syrian cyclists who rode through border posts to Finland and Norway. What did it end up with? Both Finnish and Norwegian leaders have contacted Russia and, roughly speaking, want, in exchange for something, to stop it. The Turks, in turn, received funding from the European Union, as did Morocco, ”the analyst explained.
Said how incredible the instructions to the enemy
L. Zdanavičius also presented a recipe for what to do with hybrid attacks.
“The most effective thing against hybrid attacks is an effective all-encompassing defense system,” he said.
According to him, particularly strong interaction both between state institutions and with the public.
“Because it is necessary to effectively identify that an attack is taking place and make quick decisions, the information needs to come together in one place. And here we are already talking about that reform of the crisis management system, those guidelines, the proposed approval by the Government often, the creation of a crisis management center, where information should be gathered, and the response would be coordinated and carried out, ”said L. Zdanavičius.
The analyst should point out that officials would know practically all the cases where the main gaps and violations are, but this is not the case in Lithuania, which did not lead to decision-making, resources need to be provided.
“If we don’t solve those problems, we are basically helping the attacking side because we are giving instructions on what to do. If the problems are identified, it is very important that they be turned into solutions, ”said L. Zdanavičius.
Suggests giving more powers to the police
Mindaugas Akelaitis, the head of the Public Police Board, suggested reviewing the logic of decision-making in the face of hybrid attacks.
“It is very important that such farms listen to the most unnecessarily unnecessary decision-makers, politicians who want to get the decisions made by political participants,” M. Akelaitis reasoned.
He recalled the events of 2018, when protesting teachers occupied the Ministry of Education and Science.
“It took a decision from a certain manager to do those teachers. But we ask as a practitioner what will happen if some protesters settle in 2-3 ministries. How will trust in the state and institutions change? Because again, some kind of political level decision is needed when they are needed from there.
We think it is necessary through simulations <...> identify those places where it would be appropriate to delegate decision-making not at the political level to decision-makers at the institutional or tactical level. Such a method would create an opportunity for less erosion of trust in the state, ”said M. Akelaitis.
He wants to understand that there is a risk that the institutions have disproportionately exercised those powers.
“If we’re talking about a hybrid, <...> when it turns into a volume understood by all, then it is already too late and difficult to react. If we can react in the first steps, make a more decisive decision and prevent it, then maybe we will not know if there was really a hybrid, but we will really know that we do not reduce the state’s trust, “M. Akelaitis asserted.
During the meeting, the members of the NSGK decided on the Government’s proposals to increase funding for the activities of the statutory institutions of the MoI system. The paper also asks for an assessment of the lessons learned from the crisis benefits for illegal migrants and for the presentation of systematic information on how the MoI system is prepared to counter hybrid threats.