Russia adopts advanced approaches, but does not come out of stagnation
The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank told which Nobel laureates they rely on
The Central Bank will engage in behavioral supervision based on the latest achievements of economic science. Photo by Reuters
In anticipation of the results of the Nobel Strategy in Economics, NG decided to find out whether economic science is reflected in Russia’s achievements. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank (Central Bank) reported on the introduction of advanced approaches into practice: this concerns, for example, the fight against poverty or the supervision of banks. The expert survey showed that the Central Bank, in particular, is engaged in a really noticeable integration of academic knowledge into strategy. Another thing is that the departments do not always reach a consensus with the help of internal economic activity on whether the vector is correct for Russia, which has been in stagnation for almost ten years.
The financing of the social sphere of economic development is selected in Russia. In anticipation of the results of the Nobel economy, another question is sharpened: whether, in principle, the achievements of modern economic thought are reflected in the work of the country.
The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank told NG about the introduction of progressive solutions. “When developing fiscal policy, the Ministry of Finance uses the most advanced approaches to macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, which are based, among other things, on the theory of business cycles,” said Anton Siluanov’s press service. – As the founder of the Scientific Research Financial Institute (NFI), the Ministry of Finance acts as a customer for scientific research on a wide range of issues: from the concept of “Social Treasury” to the methodology of budget expenditures reviews. ”
According to the press service of NIFI, “NIFI has become a large-scale national project for the development of initiative budgeting.” And already the Russian experience is becoming in demand abroad. ”
Since this year, NIFI has been participating in the implementation of a strategy for increasing the financial literacy of the population in the Russian Federation: “During the development of the strategy, the achievements of behavioral economics were explicitly used. In particular, economists Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith (2002) and Richard Thaler (2017) won the Nobel Prize in economics in this area. ”
“With regard to the achievements of modern economic science used by the ministry – the approaches of behavioral economics, the foundations of which were laid by the Nobel laureate Richard Thaler,” the ministry explained. “They are used by the Ministry of Finance together with the Bank of Russia in developing a strategy for the development of financial services in the Russian Federation until 2030, dedicated to protecting the rights of consumers of financial services.”
As previously explained by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the priority of the Central Bank in the near future is a behavioral restart of the banking sector and behavioral supervision.
The Ministry of Finance also participates in large-scale scientific discussions. An example is the discussion of effective tools of social protection to reduce poverty: “These tools include a universal benefit for those in need, the concept of which was developed by the NFI. For several years, the discussion around this proposal was conducted in a wide range – the principle of targeting in recent aid programs to an unconditional basic income. ”
As a result, social support for needy families with children has been significantly increased. “At the same time, the methodology for assessing the needs, prepared by Russian experts, is based on the best foreign experience, as well as the ideas of Nobel laureates, for example Angus Deaton,” the Ministry of Finance said.
If we talk about the Central Bank, then it not only uses the results of the latest topical economic research in its work, but itself actively participates in such research, the press service of the Central Bank told NG. Employees regularly publish their works at prestigious international scientific economic conferences, are published in reputable academic journals abroad and in Russia.
The topic of economic research in the Central Bank is as close as possible to practical work. For example, decisions on monetary policy are based on a modern model apparatus, take into account the potential growth of the economy, the level of neutral scenario calculations; supervision and analysis use modern models to determine the probability of a borrower’s default and the value of assets, etc.
Tatyana Radchenko told NG that, as a rule, the strongest modern macroeconomic models with serious scientific macroeconomic models used by central economic macroeconomic banks are used by central banks. “The Bank of Russia is no exception. The mega-regulator has made great strides in recent years and is currently one of the strongest research teams. A high level of scientific and academic training is involved in the creation and development of these models, ”Radchenko said. “If you look at the data on scientific publications (Russian scientific journals), then the Bank of Russia is among the leaders in the number of scientific publications and in citation,” the expert added.
In Russia, economic economic theory began in the 90s, and since then the economic policy of the Russian Federation has followed in its mainstream, explained Denis Melnik, Deputy Head of the Center for the History and Methodology of Science at the Higher School of Economics, to NG. “The modern economic basic policy in the overwhelming majority of countries is based on a certain consensus, which is often called neoliberal and is based on a standard set of tools, rules and principles,” the expert said. “From the point of view of economic policy, Russia does not in any way fall out of this consensus, which has developed in world economic theory since the 1980s.”
For example, as Melnik explained, “the policy of the macroeconomic bloc of the government, taking into account the experience of other countries – exporters of raw materials, since the 2000s, on the way of forming and maintaining a stabilization fund at the expense of the proceeds of export of raw materials, on the one hand; on the other hand, the standard practice of targeting inflation and other macroeconomic parameters was followed. ”
Work through electrical channels and direct control of them. Sergei Zavversky, head of the analytical research department of the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies, told NG that in the case of the Central Bank, its involvement in modern economic science is really noticeable. “It is another matter that there are also issues in relation to which there is no clear consensus on what kind of policy would be most optimal for Russia,” the expert clarified. “As a result, there is some scope here to first of all rely on the results of precisely those works that are consistent with the chosen position.”
As for other departments, according to Zaversky, of course, they cannot completely stay away from science, but, according to his estimates, they have limited use of the achievements of the modern economic. “A certain inertia of the program documents, as well as of the economic policy itself, as well as the lack of ambition of the goals set, affects, – the expert explained. – Often there is an unpreparedness for something new, since this implies a certain risk. And, in principle, the high role of the state in the Russian economy limits the applicability of the concepts. ”
“Of course, ministries and departments use the services of experts to form forecasts, strategies, including the services of international consulting agencies. And they, in turn, rely on the scientific results of world scientific schools, – Director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Shirov. – There is only one problem. Unfortunately, most of the recent Nobel Prize years have an extremely weak connection with the peculiarities of the development of the Russian economy. ”
The results of the national economy in our country, according to the expert, are insufficiently maintained. At the same time, as Shirov warned, direct copying of ready-made methods from abroad does not always bring a positive result.