STATISTICS FINLAND released its latest population forecast on Thursday.
The forecast shows not only that the population is starts to fall relatively soonbut also that the decline varies considerably from region to region. Pirkanmaa, Uusimaa and Åland are the only regions in the country where the population will increase in the 2040s, which means that the two regions will decrease from 2020 onwards.
Thus, the population would also be declining in the currently growing regions of Northern Ostrobothnia and Southwest Finland, confirmed Markus Rapo, senior statistician at Statistics Finland.
Population growth is currently mainly concentrated in the regions of Helsinki, Mariehamn, Oulu, Tampere and Turku.
The forecast also reveals that the population outlook has changed rapidly. In 2015, Statistics Finland estimates that the population will grow at least until 2060, while according to the latest forecast, the population will start to decline in 2034 and fall below the current level at the end of the 2040s.
Finland’s birth rate was among the ten highest in Europe in 2015, but today it is the seventh lowest.
According to the forecast two years ago shows that the population will start to shrink in 2031it appears that the so-called pandemic baby boom has alleviated the problem moderately. Last year, the decline in the birth rate stopped for the first time in nine years, but the birth rate was still almost 10,000 lower than the number of deaths.
“The year of the coronavirus is one of many. Given the development of the last five years, it has some significance, ”Rapo said.
Despite the recovery, birth rates remain low.
“Birth rates have been very low: over the last 200 years, it has only been so low last year and the year before,” he stressed.
The country’s population is projected to change dramatically: the number of young people will fall by 200,000 and the working age population by 300,000, while the number of people of retirement age will increase by 400,000 by 2070. Weather report.
The forecast is based on recent trends in births, deaths and migration and seeks to provide policy makers with the opportunity to respond to expected developments.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT