In September 2021, Sweden’s plug-in electricity market for the first time bypassed that of plug-free drivelines and received a 53.9% share of new sales. Full electricity (BEV) quickly increased its share 2.6x compared to the previous year, which resulted in a larger share than any other driveline, by 32.9%, before petrol 27.2%. The country’s best-selling vehicle in September was the newcomer Tesla Model Y.

The September combined plug-in share of 53.9% included a record showing 32.9% for full batteries (BEV), with plug-in hybrids taking a 21.0% share. This continues the politically led shift in weighting towards BEV which started in April this year. The cumulative plugin share in 2021 has now passed 41.7%, from 27.6% at this time last year.

Total car sales in September were 22,634 units, about 15.4% less than in 2019 (before COVID).

BEV’s share (32.9%) put them ahead of the petrol share (27.2%) for the first time and will only grow in dominance from now on. Diesels also fell to a record low of 11.3%. At the same time, plugless hybrids, which have long since reached their peak, fell to 6.3%.

In summary, all forms of plugless drive units were combined to a new minimum level of 44.9% and were therefore run over by plug-in powertrains for the first time.

Favorite BEV

Sweden’s overall best-selling vehicle (of any powertrain) in September was still the new in Europe Tesla Model Y, which was shipped from the hugely productive Shanghai Gigafactory.

Tesla’s manufacturing sites for active vehicles are still only 2 at the moment, and thus long delivery distances, together with previous card sales attacks against possible innuendo of quarterly earnings weakness, means that sales tend to peak at the end of each quarter.

We will therefore have to wait a while longer to see the average delivery volumes per month, but there is no doubt that the Model Y will be very popular in Europe, and even more so when the cheaper Standard Range variant is offered.

We can see that September other high-selling BEVs contained all the usual favorites; Kia Niro, MG ZS, Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.4.

To underscore the huge demand for BEV models, each of these 5 best BEVs sold more units than the best-selling Ford Focus gasoline vehicle (483 units).

For a longer term, let’s also look at delivery volumes from year to date:

If we add up Sweden’s combined VW group sales in 2021 so far (including the models shown outside the top 20), we reach 11,956 units, which is a large enough lead over Tesla (5329 units YTD) to probably hold on to the top spot for 2021.

Check data for Q3 alone, things look closer. VW Group’s Sweden Q3 in total is 4013 units, compared to Tesla’s 2234 units. But the Model Y has really only gotten serious in the last month and is still going fast. To know the current driving speeds, we must see head-to-head during the fourth quarter. Although VW’s combined European volumes are also increasing, Model Y may rise faster. This could help Tesla get much closer to the VW Group in Q4 volumes.

With one step back – while the VW Group currently has the BEV sales volume management in Europe (its production heart), Tesla still has a strong volume segment globally, even with still only two work factories (in the US and China).

Given the unfulfilled BEV demand globally, there is still everything to play for and room for everyone to come.

Tesla Model Y / Image: Tesla

Sight

As we noted above, each of the September 5 best BEV models sold the single most popular petrol vehicle. This is partly a function of the fact that many fewer BEV choices are available – and strongly indicates that the market is calling for a greater range of convincing BEV alternatives, over more price points.

It is fantastic to see that Sweden’s plugin share has broken through the 50% mark so convincingly in September, especially with BEVs in strong leadership. Just 24 months ago, Sweden was still below 10% plugin share.

In this context, it took Norway 5 years, from the end of 2013 to the end of 2018, to go from a share below 10% to above 50%. Given that the same stage of the journey took Sweden only 24 months, the growth rate is obviously much faster. Sweden is thus not just “3 years behind” Norway (ie we can not simply use “to pass the 50% mark” as a benchmark).

As I noted last month, Norway has spent the last 12 months (since September 2020) consistently at or above 80% plugin share. Based on Sweden’s accelerated progress, I estimate that Sweden within 12 months from now on will start to reach approximately or over 80% plugin share on a more or less permanent basis. If it is resolved, it would put Sweden only 2 years after Norway’s crossing of that milestone (end of 2020).

This would represent a remarkable acceleration of the BEV transition, given that Sweden was probably “6 years behind” when it passed the 10% mark (2019 vs. 2013). We will see what happens.

In the near future, Sweden will stay above 50% in the coming months and I am sure to say that December will comfortably see over 60% plugin share. I actually think it will be closer 70% share.

What is your estimate of Sweden’s transition timeline? Please share your thoughts in the comments.

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