Belarus is the only country in the region where money is taken out of banks – Charter’97 :: News from Belarus – Belarusian news – News from Belarus – Republic of Belarus
The outflow of money from deposits took on unprecedented proportions.
Over the past six months, deposits of the population in banks in Belarus are less and less, writes Infobank…
Moreover, the fall in the total amount of deposits of individuals has been continuous for all these six months.
And over the year, the decline is noticeable not only in dollar terms, but even in nominal terms in Belarusian rubles, not to mention the real decline in purchasing power, taking into account the rise in prices.
So, based on the gross volume of the population of all types and in all currencies of individuals at the end of the month and the number, on average, 1 resident had deposits:
in BYN-ruble equivalent:
August 2020 – 2615BYN / person
August 2021 – RUB 2195 / person
in $ -dollar equivalent:
August 2020 – $ 985 / person
August 2021 – $ 875 / person
Over the year, the per capita value has decreased:
in BYN-ruble equivalent – by 420BYN / person. (minus 18.3%)
in $ -dollar equivalent – by $ 110 / person. (minus 20.5%).
And this is in comparison with August last year, when many deposits were already made and the BYN-ruble devalued against the backdrop of the onset of the crisis.
Historically, the record value of BYN-nominal per capita deposits of the population in Belarusian banks was in March 2020, before the covid crisis and at the time of devaluation, strongly BYN-equivalent of foreign currency deposits – 2875 BYN-equiv. / person
And today’s volume, even purely nominal, is the level of 3.5 years ago.
For 3.5 years – an increase in censorship of the entire amount of deposits. And therefore the real decline is even deeper: in comparable prices, today’s volume is the same as it was 6 years ago.
In dollar terms, the average per capita amount is $ 875 / person. at the end of August 2021 – the lowest since September 2012: the volume of deposits of individuals of all types and in all currencies fell, if counted in dollars, to a minimum in 9 years.
Therefore, banks hold the maximum rates on deposits in rubles and especially on foreign currency deposits. Banks need deposits.
Moreover, the same per capita amount was even earlier: in February 2011 (on the eve of the famous currency crisis of that year), that is, 10.5 years ago.
But if you look in the context of the deposit currency, then over the past 12 months, deposits of individuals in Belarusian rubles have increased, deposits in foreign currency – much less.
Average per capita value of deposits of individuals in Belarusian rubles (volume of BYN deposits per capita in Belarus at the end of the month):
August 2020 – 780 rubles / person
August 2021 – 825 rubles / person
Average per capita value of deposits of individuals in foreign currency (at the end of the month):
August 2020 – $ 690 / person
August 2021 – $ 545 / person
Per capita value per year:
of all deposits of individuals in Belarusian rubles – increased by 55 BYN / person. (+ 5.8%)
of all deposits of individuals in foreign currency – decreased by $ 45 / person. (-21.0%).
The best dynamics in the sector is explained by the super-profitability of BYN deposits and exchange rate stability, as well as inflationary growth stability.
The same is true for the period from the beginning of the year.
If on all deposits (in all currencies in total) the population’s money in banks for the period from the beginning of the year (from the end of 2020 to the end of August 2021) has decreased:
in Belarusian-ruble equivalent – by 9.06%
in $ -dollar equivalent – by 6.34%,
then in terms of currency, the drop for 8 months of 2021 is only in the foreign sector, and it is very significant. While in the internal – on the contrary, growth.
For January-August, the volume of all types …
deposits in Belarusian rubles – increased by 4.30%
And if you “dig even deeper”, then the overall decline is solely due to the reduction in time deposits in foreign currency.
At the same time, there is an increase in fixed-term BYN-ruble denominations, although it was formed entirely due to the recapitalization of accrued interest, that is, a “net” inflow of new money there. And this is despite the fact that term BYN deposits are super profitable this year.
The increase is also on transferable BYN-deposits of individuals – on BYN-card accounts of the population. Here, however, there is a direct dependence on the average growth of wages, as well as on inflation: more and more money is needed for expenses. But exchange rate stability is not the last reason for growth.
For 8 months (from the end of 2020 to the end of August 2021), the changes in the amounts on the deposits of the population are as follows:
on transferable ones in national currency – an increase of 4.88% (+ 139m BYN)
for term deposits in national currency – an increase of 3.93% (+ BYN 178m)
on transferable ones in foreign currency – a drop of 1.64% (-20 million $)
for fixed-term transactions in foreign currency – a drop of 16.1% (-745mln $).
So, the entire period of fiscal, exchange rate, economic and foreign trade improvement, which has been going on for six months, comes from the banks by the population – the volume of deposits of individuals is decreasing.
Although “logically” it should be the other way around: overall improvement is always growth.
Poor deposit dynamics in Belarus is a direct consequence of the ongoing political crisis with the worst political situation, and even more so the announced sectoral sanctions. What breeds negative expectations in society.
This is a direct message that this is a direct message about the near future.
But in other countries of the region, the average per capita volume of household deposits has increased.
In the first 8 months of 2021, the volume of household deposits in dollar terms (including per capita) changed as follows:
in Belarus – decreased by 6.34% (-55 $ / person)
in Georgia – increased by 11.0% ($ + 165 / person)
in Kazakhstan – increased by 12.7% (+ $ 150 / person)
in Moldova – increased by 5.34% ($ + 65 / person)
in Russia – increased by 0.80% (+ $ 15 / person)
in Ukraine – increased by 5.99% (+ $ 55 / person).
And now the volume of household deposits in banks per capita in Belarus is only higher than in Ukraine. But with such dynamics, the hour is not far off when Ukraine has foam plastic. Although the National Bank and Belarusian banks in general are making every effort to return depositors.
And Belarus will become the country with the lowest volume of deposits of the population in the region per capita.