Will the whole of Prague be full of people as Charles Bridge is today? According to EU statistics, the real number of percentages of Praguers is a fifth by 2040.
Roads clogged with car columns, crowded buses and the subway, increasing parking zones. Everything that spoils the mood of Praguers may get worse in the coming years. According to the latest Eurostat forecast, a quarter of a million people will increase in Prague over the next 25 years and the population of the capital will exceed 1.5 million.
An even more significant increase is to take place in the Central Bohemian Region, for which Eurostat forecasts an announcement of almost 400,000. In 2040, it can exceed 1.7 million people. The local population increase (in relative terms by 29 percent) will be among the highest in Europe, in Central Europe it is to be the fourth highest growth after Vienna and two Swiss regions.
If the estimate of EU statistics is fulfilled, it will be good news for developers, real estate agencies and construction companies. The dynamically growing capital will urgently need new roads and metro lines. A further increase in the prices of flats and land in Prague and its surroundings can also be expected.
Forecast of the development of the number of people in the Czech Republic and its regions
Author: Eurostat – population development of NUTS 3 regions
Almost a million migrants in 25 years
Virtually the entire population increase in Prague and Central Bohemia will be driven by immigration from other Czech regions – and mainly from abroad. According to the Eurostat forecast, there will be around 35,000 foreigners a year in the Czech Republic in the next two decades. If we take into account how many Ukrainians, Vietnamese and others settled in the Czech Republic during the economic boom from 2004 to 2008, this is a real number.
In 25 years, thanks to newcomers, the population of the Czech Republic could approach 11 million. “In addition to increasing female fertility, Eurostat projections assume high migration. For Prague, a total of approximately 228,000 people expect a migration increase by 2040, ie 9,000 per year, and for the Central Bohemian Region even more than 375,000 people, ie 15,000 per year, “said Tomáš Fiala from the Department of Demography at the University of Economics in Prague.
The question is whether such a strong influx of new inhabitants – especially in the municipalities around Prague – will be bearable. “Some municipalities around Prague already have to consider limiting other housing exhibitions and thus limiting migration,” added Tomáš Fiala.
The Czech Statistical Office is much more cautious in its forecasts. Its projection assumes both a lower number of children born (average 1.6 children per woman compared to 1.8 in the case of Eurostat) and a weaker influx of migrants. In 2040, Prague will exceed “only” the 1.4 million population and Central Bohemia will approach 1.5 million people. In other regions, the number of people should stagnate or decline.
One country in the region will lose people
The CZSO study is almost three years old. It therefore does not take into account the current economic recovery and the growing supply of jobs that will attract newcomers to the country. Thanks to them, the Czechia – according to Eurostat – will be one of the countries with a growing population. According to this forecast, most of the new member states, but also the states of southern Europe, are to be depopulated.
Lithuania will be an extreme case. The number of people in this Baltic country has fallen from the current 2.9 million to less than two million. Poland will lose two million people over the next quarter century, Slovakia 300,000 and Germany three million.
According to this projection, the less prosperous parts of the Czech Republic are to meet the same fate. The Moravian-Silesian, Zlín and Karlovy Vary regions are to be depopulated, with a decrease of approximately 10 percent over 25 years. The Olomouc region will not be much better off either.
Urban regions with the highest expected population growth
|City / Region||January 1, 2015 (in thousands)||1. 1. 2040 (in thousands)||Growth|
|London||8573||11 498||+ 34%|
Source: Eurostat – regional population forecast (NUTS 2 level)
Growth with Muslims will be faster
The growth in the population of Prague and the Central Bohemian Region will be sharp, but not extreme. Especially if we compare their future with the natural growth that according to the Eurostat forecast is to take place in many cities in Western and Northern Europe.
According to this forecast, dramatic growth is ahead of Brussels and Oslo, which will grow by more than 50 percent in a quarter of a century. The population of London, Vienna and Zurich is said to increase by a third, and Stockholm by 44 percent.
Eurostat does not provide further details on the nature of this growth, but immigrants from Muslim countries will be the driving force behind this growth. Today, they already make up more than a quarter of Brussels’ population, and according to sociology professor Felice Dassett, they exceeded 50 percent earlier in 2030.